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New York JetsMason Taylor
#85 · TE · 6' 5" · 251 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 27.2 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMason Taylor isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Taylor was limited Wednesday, but his return to full Thursday puts him on track for his normal role Sunday against the Chiefs. The tight end has been a surprisingly big part of the passing offense this season despite the selection of Kenyon Sadiq in the first round of April's Draft. Taylor has secured 17 of 23 targets for 136 yards and two touchdowns across six games.
Verdict
vs 24.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
28.6 REC YDS(×0.98 context)
L5 27.2 · L10 27.2 · med 24.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 14.8 · ceil 38.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 24.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 24.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
Next matchup — vs BUF
Nov 15, 2026
7thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
BUF allows 30.9 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 16 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 5 games, Mason Taylor has gone over 24.5 REC YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. BUF has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 7th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (30.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 20.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.