Green Bay Packers

Matthew Golden Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Matthew Golden has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 5 of his last 8 decided games (63%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.6 REC TD · our line

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OutMatthew Golden isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Golden led the Packers in receptions and targets while finishing second in receiving yards, and the latter total was also a new career high. The second-year wideout also laid claim to the game's longest catch (49 yards), and he reeled in the first of Jordan Love's three TD passes on the day with a five-yard grab at just under the eight-minute mark of the first quarter. Golden now has four 100-yard efforts in what is already a breakout campaign that's seen him amass a 53-783-5 line on 92 targets heading into a Week 10 home showdown against the Vikings next Sunday.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)86supports it

Projection vs line53neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

0.7 REC TD(×0.96 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.6 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 108 games

63%over

5 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%

Last 208 games

63%over

5 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%

Season8 games

63%over

5 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	63%	5/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home75%3/4Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days71%5/7Low

Next matchup — vs MIN

Nov 15, 2026

26thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

MIN allows 0.2 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 21 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Matthew Golden has gone over 0.5 REC TD 5 of 8 decided times (63%) — versus 63% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 26th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.