Loading…
Las Vegas RaidersMichael Mayer Targets
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Michael Mayer has gone over 7.5 TGT in 2 of his last 5 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 7.2 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMichael Mayer isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Mayer's six targets were second on the team behind Brock Bowers' 10, and only Bowers (26) ran more routes than Mayer's 20 on Kirk Cousins' 27 dropbacks. The tight end has just one touchdown this season but has remained an integral part of Las Vegas' passing attack. He's already surpassed his 2025 catches and yards totals, posting 36 grabs for 351 yards through eight games this season. Mayer will be a fantasy TE2 for next Sunday's date with the 49ers.
Verdict
vs 7.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 74% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line74supports it
Consistency51neutral
Matchup100supports it
Projection
6.1 TGT(×0.84 context)
L5 7.2 · L10 7.2 · med 7.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 5.6 · ceil 9.2
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 7.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 20% | 1/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away0%0/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
Next matchup — @ SF
Nov 8, 2026
30thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends
SF allows 2.9 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 19 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 5 games, Michael Mayer has gone over 7.5 TGT 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. SF has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 30th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.9 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.
More Michael Mayer research
Michael Mayer — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Mayer Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Mayer Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Mayer Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.