
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Mike Washington Jr. has gone over 1.5 REC in 0 of his last 2 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Washington was far less efficient with his carries in Week 2, averaging 2.3 YPC after he turned seven carries into 41 yards against the Dolphins in the team's regular-season opener. The running back operated as a distant No. 2 option in the backfield, as Ashton Jeanty logged 21 carries for 48 yards while catching four of seven targets for 15 yards. Washington is nothing more than a bench stash option in fantasy leagues at the moment.
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
NO allows 3.3 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableOver his last 2 games, Mike Washington Jr. has gone over 1.5 REC 0 of 2 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. NO has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 4th-most REC of 32 teams (3.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Carries hit rates and trends.
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Targets hit rates and trends.
Receiving Yards hit rates and trends.
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
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Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.