Denver Broncos

Pat Bryant Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Oct 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Pat Bryant has gone over 7.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Illinois
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 7.3 FS · our line

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OutPat Bryant isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Bryant was activated from IR on Saturday after recovering from an ankle injury, and he came up big late in Sunday's contest, hauling in a 26-yard TD strike from Bo Nix with less than six minutes left in the fourth quarter for what proved to be the game-winning score. The second-year wideout's clutch play came after Jaylen Waddle (concussion) had left the game, and if a Week 10 bye doesn't give him enough time to recover, Bryant could see an elevated role in Week 11 against the Raiders.

Verdict

vs 7.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)69supports it

Projection vs line47neutral

Consistency28argues against it

Projection

8.1 FS(×1.07 context)

L5 7.7 · L10 8.2 · med 7.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 4.4 · ceil 9.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2012 games

42%over

5 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%

Season12 games

42%over

5 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	75%	9/12
	75%	9/12
	67%	8/12
7.5Current	42%	5/12
	25%	3/12
	17%	2/12
	17%	2/12

Last 12 games — FS per game vs. line 7.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 7.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away33%2/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days45%5/11Low

Last matchup — @ SF

Oct 4, 2026

19thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

SF allows 9.0 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 20 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Pat Bryant has gone over 7.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 42% across the full season. SF has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 19th-most FS of 32 teams (9.0 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.