Loading…
Pittsburgh SteelersPat Freiermuth
#88 · TE · 6' 5" · 258 lb · 14 games
Stats updated: Jan 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 33.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutPat Freiermuth isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Freiermuth was targeted only 54 times in 17 regular-season games in 2025, tying Jonnu Smith for the lead among Pittsburgh's tight ends while Darnell Washington drew 43 targets. Smith is no longer on the team, and while the Steelers made a high-profile addition at wide receiver by bringing in Michael Pittman, they also lost running back Kenneth Gainwell, who led the team with 73 catches last season. It's worth noting Aaron Rodgers typically hasn't relied heavily on tight ends, as no player at the position has recorded more than 767 receiving yards in a regular season on a team quarterbacked by Rodgers.
Verdict
vs 27.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 40% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line40argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
37.8 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 39.4 · L10 29.8 · med 23.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 16.0 · ceil 47.4
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 27.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 |
Situational splits
Over 27.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away50%4/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days46%6/13Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Rico Dowdle out+8.2 REC YDS when he sits
Without (8g)
37.4 REC YDS
50% over 27.5
With (6g)
29.2 REC YDS
50% over 27.5
Last matchup — vs HOU
Jan 13, 2026
30thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
HOU allows 20.8 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 38 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Pat Freiermuth has gone over 27.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 30th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (20.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 26.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.