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Los Angeles ChargersQuentin Johnston
#1 · WR · 6' 2" · 208 lb · 11 games
Stats updated: Jan 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- TCU
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 65.8 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutQuentin Johnston isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Johnston said McDaniel's scheme will put him "in the right position to be successful," noting that much of his collegiate success at TCU came after the catch. The 2023 first-round pick, who had his fifth-year option exercised in April, also said he's enjoyed working closely with his new offensive coordinator. Johnston managed a 51-735-8 line on 84 targets while suiting up for 14 regular-season games last year and could take a step forward in 2026 under McDaniel's scheme, with Keenan Allen still unsigned and freeing up 122 targets, and Los Angeles' offensive line set to return to health. Johnston, Ladd McConkey (hamstring) and Tre' Harris headline Justin Herbert's receiving corps, while tight ends Oronde Gadsden, David Njoku and Charlie Kolar will also figure into the passing game.
Verdict
vs 70.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 40% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60neutral
Projection vs line40neutral
Consistency27argues against it
Projection
58.2 REC YDS(×0.94 context)
L5 63.4 · L10 64.5 · med 62.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 40.0 · ceil 98.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2011 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season11 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 70.5Current | 55% | 6/11 | |
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 |
Situational splits
Over 70.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%5/10Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Omarion Hampton out-33.2 REC YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
41.7 REC YDS
0% over 70.5
With (8g)
74.9 REC YDS
75% over 70.5
Last matchup — @ NE
Jan 12, 2026
31stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NE allows 36.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 68 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Quentin Johnston has gone over 70.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 31st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (36.0 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 28.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.