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Miami DolphinsQuinn Ewers
#14 · QB · 6' 2" · 209 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 189.7 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutQuinn Ewers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Per Kelly, Ewers has been performing well, connecting with tight end Ben Sims and rookie undrafted free-agent wide receiver Donaven McCulley. As the offseason progresses, Ewers will continue to compete with 2025 sixth-rounder Cam Miller and rookie undrafted free agent Mark Gronowski for the Dolphins' backup QB role.
Verdict
vs 171.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency55neutral
Projection
184.8 PASS YDS
L5 189.7 · L10 189.7 · med 172.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 151.0 · ceil 224.8
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 171.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Situational splits
Over 171.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%2/2Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%1/2Low
Last matchup — @ NE
Jan 4, 2026
28thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NE allows 188.3 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 22 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 3 games, Quinn Ewers has gone over 171.5 PASS YDS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 28th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (188.3 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 51.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.