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Buffalo BillsRay Davis
#22 · RB · 5' 8" · 211 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Jan 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Kentucky
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 53.4 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutRay Davis isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
During the 2025 regular season, Cook logged 309 carries (third in the NFL) for a league-high 1,621 rushing yards in 17 contests, a heavy workload that didn't leave much volume for either Davis (58 carries) or Ty Johnson (50 carries). With Cook entrenched as the Bills' lead back, Davis brings modest fantasy utility into 2026, but he remains a valuable backup who excels as a kicker returner. If Cook were to miss time, Davis -- who racked up 151 rushing yards on 21 carries during a spot start in Week 18 last season -- would likely step in as the starter, with Johnson also in the mix.
Verdict
vs 24.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 32% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line32argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
62.4 RUSH YDS
L5 53.4 · L10 53.4 · med 24.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 15.6 · ceil 79.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 24.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 24.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
Last matchup — vs NYJ
Jan 4, 2026
3rdof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
NYJ allows 55.4 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 33 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 5 games, Ray Davis has gone over 24.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. NYJ has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 3rd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (55.4 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 51.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.