Pittsburgh Steelers

Rico Dowdle Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Rico Dowdle has gone over 9 FS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: South Carolina
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 13.4 FS · PrizePicks line

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QuestionableConfirm Rico Dowdle's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Toe Not Specified

After exiting midway through the second quarter due to the toe injury, Dowdle was cleared to return coming out of halftime and picked up four touches (three carries, one catch) over the Steelers' first three possessions of the second half. However, he may have aggravated the injury at some point along the way and will now be shut down for the rest of the day. Jaylen Warren is expected to see the bulk of the snaps and touches out of the backfield for the remainder of the Week 2 contest, with Travis Homer and Eli Heidenreich providing depth behind him.

Verdict

vs 9 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Warm overFireFactor 30/100· model 54% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it

Projection vs line54neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

7.7 FS(×0.83 context)

L5 6.2 · L10 9.5 · med 9.6

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 6.4 · ceil 15.3

Matchup

small sample

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2016 games

69%over

11 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 44%–86%

Season16 games

69%over

11 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 44%–86%

Last 16 games — FS per game vs. line 9.0. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 9 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home75%6/8Low

Away63%5/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%10/15Medium

Next matchup — vs CIN

Sep 27, 2026

21stof 32 in FS allowed to running backs

CIN allows 9.0 FS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Rico Dowdle has gone over 9 FS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 69% across the full season. CIN has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 21st-most FS of 32 teams (9.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 9.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 69%.