Pittsburgh Steelers

Rico Dowdle Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Rico Dowdle has gone over 11.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: South Carolina
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 15.5 FS · our line

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OutRico Dowdle isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Dowdle was first up for first-team reps on Thursday after Warren worked ahead of him Wednesday. Dowdle joins Pittsburgh after back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons and brings prior familiarity with new coach Mike McCarthy, giving him a real chance to push Warren for the lead committee role. That said, Warren's receiving ability gives him a strong path to consistent touches, and it remains to be seen whether Dowdle's bruising between-the-tackles style will allow him to secure the majority of goal-line work. Pittsburgh's backfield competition will be one to track closely during training camp.

Verdict

vs 11.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it

Projection vs line54neutral

Consistency1argues against it

Projection

11.5 FS(×0.90 context)

L5 10.3 · L10 15.4 · med 11.9

Consistency

Variable

floor 9.5 · ceil 23.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2013 games

46%over

6 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%

Season13 games

46%over

6 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	85%	11/13
	77%	10/13
	69%	9/13
11.5Current	46%	6/13
	38%	5/13
	38%	5/13
	38%	5/13

Last 13 games — FS per game vs. line 11.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 11.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home43%3/7Low

Away50%3/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%6/12Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Aaron Rodgers out+1.5 FS when he sits

Without (5g)

16.4 FS

60% over 11.5

With (8g)

14.9 FS

38% over 11.5

Jaylen Warren out-2.1 FS when he sits

Without (6g)

14.3 FS

50% over 11.5

With (7g)

16.5 FS

43% over 11.5

Last matchup — vs SEA

Dec 28, 2025

32ndof 32 in FS allowed to running backs

SEA allows 9.2 FS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 41 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Rico Dowdle has gone over 11.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 46% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 32nd-most FS of 32 teams (9.2 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 9.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.