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Indianapolis ColtsRiley Leonard
#15 · QB · 6' 4" · 213 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 207.5 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutRiley Leonard isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Leonard continues to split reps with Anthony Richardson with the Colts' second-team offense as training camp gets underway. The second-year pro was impressive in his only start last season, completing 21 of 34 passes for 270 yards and two touchdowns while also throwing an interception in the Colts' 38-30 loss to the Texans in Week 18. Leonard and Richardson are both expected to be members of the Colts' initial 53-man roster in 2026.
Verdict
vs 207.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency50neutral
Projection
210.4 PASS YDS
L5 207.5 · L10 207.5 · med 207.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 170.0 · ceil 245.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 207.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 |
Situational splits
Over 207.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%1/1Low
Last matchup — @ HOU
Jan 4, 2026
22ndof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
HOU allows 199.7 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 19 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 2 games, Riley Leonard has gone over 207.5 PASS YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 22nd-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (199.7 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 62.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.