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Chicago BearsRoschon Johnson
#23 · RB · 6' 0" · 227 lb · 4 games
Stats updated: Nov 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 22.5 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutRoschon Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
With Kyle Monangai (toe/thumb) inactive for a fourth straight game, Johnson continued to serve as the No. 2 running back behind D'Andre Swift. Unsurprisingly, Swift (27 carries for 69 yards and three touchdowns) handled the brunt of the work out of the backfield, with Johnson taking the field for just 14 of the team's 70 offensive snaps. If Monangai is able to make it back for Sunday's matchup with the Buccaneers, Johnson's playing time on offense could disappear entirely.
Verdict
vs 16.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
21.5 RUSH YDS(×0.93 context)
L5 22.5 · L10 22.5 · med 16.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 12.0 · ceil 30.6
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Situational splits
Over 16.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/1Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%2/3Low
Next matchup — vs TB
Nov 9, 2026
28thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
TB allows 36.0 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 4 games, Roschon Johnson has gone over 16.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. TB has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 28th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (36.0 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 17.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 10.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Hard Rock Bet-110
-4.5% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+8.3%
Our model puts the over at 58.3% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (10.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.