Dallas Cowboys

Ryan Flournoy Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ryan Flournoy has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 7 decided games (14%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Southeast Missouri State
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.1 REC TD · our line

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OutRyan Flournoy isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

"You saw him take that step, I'd say in the middle of the season last year and he came back, man, with just a really strong intent for what he wanted to get done," Schottenheimer said. "He looks great. He's moving great. His routes, I think have gotten better. Here's a guy from a small school that's come in and really adapted to the way we teach route breaks and releases and speed terms and power cuts and things like that. I really think the sky's the limit for him and he's definitely a guy we see finding ways to get him the ball." Flournoy is locked into the Cowboys' third receiver spot behind CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, and he's one of the best bench stashes at the wideout spot in fantasy. If either Lamb or Pickens were to get injured, Flournoy would assume an every-down role in a high-octane passing attack. With Lamb out for three games last regular season, Flournoy produced one of his two 100-yard receiving games and was targeted 17 times across those three contests.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 85% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line85supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 REC TD(×1.03 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 107 games

14%over

1 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–51%

Last 207 games

14%over

1 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–51%

Season7 games

14%over

1 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 3%–51%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	14%	1/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/2Low

Away20%1/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days17%1/6Low

Last matchup — @ NYG

Jan 4, 2026

15thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

NYG allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 57 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 7 games, Ryan Flournoy has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 7 decided times (14%) — versus 14% across the full season. NYG has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 15th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 14%.