Miami Dolphins

Ryan Miller Receptions

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ryan Miller has gone over 0.5 REC in 3 of his last 5 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Furman
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 0.6 REC · our line

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OutRyan Miller isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Miller worked mostly on special teams during the contest, but he got a chance to play seven offensive snaps. The fourth-year wideout made the most of the opportunity, connecting with QB Malik Willis on a 77-yard score late in the fourth quarter. The game was out of reach for Miami at that point, but it was still a significant moment for Miller as he tries to earn more playing time on offense. The door could be open a crack for that, as Caleb Douglas hurt his ankle Sunday and is uncertain to be able to play Week 3. With that in mind, Miller is buried pretty deep on Miami's WR depth chart, so he's not guaranteed to see the field often even if Douglas is ruled out.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line49neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.6 REC(×0.92 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.6 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 105 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 205 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Season5 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	60%	3/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — REC per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away75%3/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days75%3/4Low

Next matchup — vs KC

Sep 27, 2026

24thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

KC allows 3.0 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 5 games, Ryan Miller has gone over 0.5 REC 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 24th-most REC of 32 teams (3.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.