Philadelphia Eagles

Saquon Barkley Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Saquon Barkley has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Penn State
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.4 RUSH TD · our line

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OutSaquon Barkley isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The highlight of Barkley's performance was easily his 42-yard, tackle-breaking scamper midway through the second quarter. Beyond that, the star running back was mostly contained on the ground, recording just 41 yards on his other 14 totes. Barkley also was a non-factor in the passing game, hauling in just one pass for a three-yard loss. That may be a particularly concerning stat for Barkley's fantasy managers considering his dwindling usage as a pass catcher at the end of last season -- over his final five regular-season games, Barkley caught just two of nine targets for a meager 14 yards and was shut out entirely through the air in four of those contests. Barkley does have a favorable Week 2 matchup, as he'll face a Tennessee team that often looked inept in a Week 1 loss to the Jets.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line63supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.3 RUSH TD(×1.10 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2017 games

41%over

7 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%

Season17 games

41%over

7 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	41%	7/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17

Last 17 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home38%3/8Low

Away44%4/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days38%6/16Medium

Next matchup — @ TEN

Sep 20, 2026

9thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

TEN allows 0.5 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Saquon Barkley has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 41% across the full season. TEN has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 9th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.