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Tampa Bay BuccaneersSean Tucker
#44 · RB · 5' 10" · 205 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Jan 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Syracuse
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 42.9 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutSean Tucker isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Tucker was inactive for Bucs' Week 1 loss to the Bengals last Sunday, allowing Bucky Irving to handle clear RB1 duties ahead of Kenny Gainwell. Irving contributed a touchdown, which should help give him a leg up on Tucker in the scoring area after Tucker siphoned some of those looks last season.
Verdict
vs 9.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 88% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line88supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
45.7 RUSH YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 54.4 · L10 42.9 · med 42.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 25.8 · ceil 50.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 107 games
86%over
6 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–97%Last 207 games
86%over
6 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–97%Season7 games
86%over
6 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–97%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 9.5Current | 86% | 6/7 | |
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 86% | 6/7 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%3/3Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%6/6Medium
Next matchup — vs MIN
Sep 27, 2026
23rdof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
MIN allows 39.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Sean Tucker has gone over 9.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 7 decided times (86%) — versus 86% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 23rd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (39.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 29.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 86%.