Indianapolis Colts

Seth McGowan Carries

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Seth McGowan has gone over 0.5 CAR in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Kentucky
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 1.0 CAR · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutSeth McGowan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

McGowan was only on the field for six of the team's 54 offensive snaps while operating as the top reserve option at running back behind Jonathan Taylor. McGowan definitely made his mark on special teams during the contest, but as long as Taylor is healthy, the former will likely have a limited impact on offense.

Verdict

vs 0.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line59neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.0 CAR(×0.92 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.4 · ceil 1.6

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — CAR per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away100%1/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Next matchup — vs HOU

Sep 27, 2026

1stof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

HOU allows 16.5 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 2 games, Seth McGowan has gone over 0.5 CAR 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 1st-most CAR of 32 teams (16.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CAR have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.