New Orleans Saints

Spencer Rattler Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Dec 14, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Spencer Rattler has gone over 13.5 FS in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: South Carolina
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 13.0 FS · our line

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OutSpencer Rattler isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Rattler lost the 2025 starting job to rookie first-round pick Tyler Shough halfway through the Saints' Week 8 loss to the Buccaneers. The quarterback remained in a reserve role for the team and is clearly liked by the organization, but the signing of three-year Jets starter Zach Wilson leaves Rattler's role up in the air. There is always the possibility the team retains three quarterbacks on the active roster (as they did in 2025), but only one will be the No. 2 option.

Verdict

vs 13.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 31% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line31argues against it

Consistency39argues against it

Projection

10.4 FS(×0.90 context)

L5 11.7 · L10 13.0 · med 13.1

Consistency

Variable

floor 11.2 · ceil 15.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	88%	7/8
	63%	5/8
	63%	5/8
13.5Current	50%	4/8
	25%	2/8
	25%	2/8
	13%	1/8

Last 8 games — FS per game vs. line 13.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 13.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home40%2/5Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days57%4/7Low

Last matchup — vs TB

Oct 26, 2025

4thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

TB allows 19.2 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 18 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 8 games, Spencer Rattler has gone over 13.5 FS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. TB has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 4th-most FS of 32 teams (19.2 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.