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Minnesota VikingsT.J. Hockenson
#87 · TE · 6' 5" · 248 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 48.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutT.J. Hockenson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Hockenson secured an eight-yard touchdown midway through the fourth quarter to give the Vikings a 15-12 lead, and he's now up to 31 grabs for 295 yards and three touchdowns on 37 targets through seven games this season. Hockenson, though, missed all but two offensive snaps in the Week 5 win over the Saints after suffering a concussion. A favorite target for Kyler Murray in the middle and short areas of the field, Hockenson has settled in as a lower-end TE1 in fantasy. He gets a plus matchup with the Bills next Monday night in another spot the Minnesota offense may be forced to push the gas pedal.
Verdict
vs 35.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 33% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line33argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
55.8 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 50.4 · L10 48.0 · med 35.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 29.0 · ceil 58.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 35.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 |
Situational splits
Over 35.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%2/5Low
Next matchup — vs BUF
Nov 10, 2026
7thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
BUF allows 30.9 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 16 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, T.J. Hockenson has gone over 35.5 REC YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. BUF has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 7th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (30.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 34.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 41.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
Caesars-112
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+17.2%
Our model puts the over at 67.2% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (41.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.