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Tampa Bay BuccaneersTed Hurst III
#17 · WR · 6' 3" · 185 lb · 1 games
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia State
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 36.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTed Hurst III isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
With Jalen McMillan (knee) inactive, Hurst played 75 percent of the offensive snaps against Cincinnati and ran 30 routes on Baker Mayfield's 36 dropbacks. Hurst's three targets were fifth on the team. McMillan's injury isn't expected to keep him out long, so Hurst will be competing for playing time once everyone is healthy. Hurst is merely someone to watch on the waiver wire in normal-sized redraft fantasy leagues.
Verdict
vs 35.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line95supports it
Consistency100supports it
Projection
36.9 REC YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 36.0 · L10 36.0 · med 36.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 36.0 · ceil 36.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 51 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 101 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 201 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Season1 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 35.5Current | 100% | 1/1 | |
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 |
Situational splits
Over 35.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away100%1/1Low
Next matchup — vs MIN
Sep 27, 2026
1stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
MIN allows 87.3 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 1 games, Ted Hurst III has gone over 35.5 REC YDS 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 1st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (87.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.