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Tampa Bay BuccaneersTez Johnson Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Tez Johnson has gone over 9.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 9.2 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTez Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Johnson played 19 offensive snaps compared to Emeka Egbuka's 56 snaps, Chris Godwin's 56 snaps and Ted Hurst's 48 snaps. The No. 5 wide receiver generated one explosive play for the Buccaneers' offense but could not provide much more to the cause in the losing effort.
Verdict
vs 9.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
6.2 FS(×0.83 context)
L5 5.0 · L10 9.2 · med 9.6
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 3.4 · ceil 13.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 9.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 20% | 2/10 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
Next matchup — vs MIN
Sep 27, 2026
7thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers
MIN allows 12.6 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tez Johnson has gone over 9.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 7th-most FS of 32 teams (12.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Tez Johnson research
Tez Johnson — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Johnson Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Johnson Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Johnson Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.