Loading…
New York JetsTim Patrick
#17 · WR · 6' 5" · 210 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Utah
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 32.7 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTim Patrick isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Patrick was placed on the list Saturday, but the wide receiver has recovered quickly. The 32-year-old is set to be the No. 4 receiver for the Jets in 2026 behind Garrett Wilson, Adonai Mitchell and rookie Omar Cooper, but will also need to contend with rookie tight end Kenyon Sadiq (abdomen) for receptions.
Verdict
vs 19.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 68% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
35.2 REC YDS
L5 32.7 · L10 32.7 · med 20.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 8.0 · ceil 54.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 19.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Situational splits
Over 19.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%2/2Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%1/2Low
Last matchup — vs IND
Dec 7, 2025
3rdof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
IND allows 49.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 60 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 3 games, Tim Patrick has gone over 19.5 REC YDS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. IND has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 3rd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (49.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 33.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.