Tennessee Titans

Tony Pollard Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tony Pollard has gone over 1.5 REC in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Memphis
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 1.9 REC · our line

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OutTony Pollard isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Jim Wyatt of the Titans' official site previously noted plenty of speculation that the team might use the fourth overall pick in the draft on Notre Dame running Jeremiyah Love. With Tennessee electing to take Ohio State wideout Carnell Tate instead, Pollard remains atop the depth chart and has his sights set on exceeding 1,000 rushing yards for a fifth straight campaign. The Titans still have Spears to handle passing downs and change-of-pace carries, and Singleton has a chance to factor in as a rookie, but Pollard should maintain steady volume in the final season of the three-year deal he inked with Tennessee in March of 2024.

Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral

Projection vs line58neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

2.0 REC(×1.10 context)

L5 1.2 · L10 1.6 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2017 games

53%over

9 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%

Season17 games

53%over

9 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	82%	14/17
1.5Current	53%	9/17
	35%	6/17
	12%	2/17
	6%	1/17

Last 17 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home56%5/9Low

Away50%4/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days56%9/16Medium

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Michael Carter out-0.9 REC when he sits

Without (6g)

1.3 REC

33% over 1.5

With (11g)

2.3 REC

64% over 1.5

Last matchup — @ JAX

Jan 4, 2026

8thof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

JAX allows 2.4 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 32 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Tony Pollard has gone over 1.5 REC 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 53% across the full season. JAX has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 8th-most REC of 32 teams (2.4 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.