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Jacksonville JaguarsTrevor Lawrence
#16 · QB · 6' 6" · 220 lb · 18 games
Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Clemson
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 234.1 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTrevor Lawrence isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Lawrence has seemingly mastered Coen's offensive scheme in advance of training camp, and he's at full health this offseason after having faced limitations last summer due to a recovery from shoulder surgery. Per Shipley, Lawrence displayed command of the downfield passing attack during spring workouts and appears to have established better chemistry with Brian Thomas. The Jaguars have an abundance of riches to draw on in the aerial attack, with Thomas being joined by Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, Travis Hunter (knee) and TE Brenton Strange, so Lawrence is in good position to build on his impressive finish to the 2025 season. Jacksonville averaged 32.8 points per game from Weeks 9 to 18 last year.
Verdict
vs 236.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency67supports it
Projection
243.2 PASS YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 266.8 · L10 237.4 · med 249.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 189.6 · ceil 267.8
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2018 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Season18 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 236.5Current | 50% | 9/18 | |
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 |
Situational splits
Over 236.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%5/10Low
Away50%4/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%9/17Medium
With a teammate out
How this PASS YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jakobi Meyers out+34.3 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
262.7 PASS YDS
67% over 236.5
With (15g)
228.4 PASS YDS
47% over 236.5
Last matchup — vs BUF
Jan 11, 2026
32ndof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
BUF allows 169.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 20 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Trevor Lawrence has gone over 236.5 PASS YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. BUF has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 32nd-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (169.0 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 46.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.