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Jacksonville JaguarsTrevor Lawrence
#16 · QB · 6' 6" · 220 lb · 20 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 18 of these 20 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Clemson
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 232.4 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTrevor Lawrence isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Lawrence helped lead the Jaguars to a 10-3 halftime lead and 13-6 advantage after three quarters, but the Broncos' defense progressively exerted its will and ended up holding him to a 52.4 QBR while sacking him twice. Lawrence's interception was also costly, as it came late in the third quarter at the Broncos' 33-yard line and led to a Denver touchdown. The drop-off in performance for Lawrence compared to Week 1 was fairly drastic, and the 2021 first overall pick will face another high-caliber defense in a Week 3 home matchup against the Patriots next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 236.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)44neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency67supports it
Projection
230.4 PASS YDS(×1.00 context)
L5 231.8 · L10 249.7 · med 250.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 186.8 · ceil 264.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season20 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 236.5Current | 50% | 10/20 | |
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 50% | 10/20 |
Situational splits
Over 236.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home55%6/11Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%10/19Medium
Next matchup — vs NE
Sep 27, 2026
22ndof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NE allows 187.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Trevor Lawrence has gone over 236.5 PASS YDS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 22nd-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (187.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 45.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 223.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-111
-5.0% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-111
-5.0% EV
Model vs market (over)-2.3%
Our model puts the over at 47.7% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (223.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.