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Arizona CardinalsTrey Benson
#33 · RB · 6' 0" · 225 lb · 4 games
Stats updated: Sep 26, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Florida State
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 40.0 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTrey Benson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Benson wasn't able to play after Week 4 last season due to a knee injury, finishing with 29 carries for 160 yards, 13 catches (on 16 targets) for 64 yards and no touchdowns in four contests. LaFleur noted that the team doesn't expect the current issue to be a long-term concern, and there's a chance Benson will play in Thursday's Hall of Fame Game against the Panthers, per Theo Mackie of The Arizona Republic. With James Conner (foot) still not operating at 100 percent in training camp, Bam Knight, Corey Kiner and Evan Hull are the reserve RBs behind the top duo of rookie first-round pick Jeremiyah Love and offseason signing Tyler Allgeier.
Verdict
vs 38.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency18argues against it
Projection
38.9 RUSH YDS
L5 40.0 · L10 40.0 · med 38.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 26.6 · ceil 52.8
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 38.5Current | 50% | 2/4 | |
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 |
Situational splits
Over 38.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/2Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%1/3Low
Last matchup — vs SEA
Sep 26, 2025
32ndof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
SEA allows 34.7 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 41 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 4 games, Trey Benson has gone over 38.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 32nd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (34.7 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.