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Tennessee TitansTyjae Spears
#2 · RB · 5' 11" · 195 lb · 11 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Tulane
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 21.4 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTyjae Spears isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Spears at one point appeared at risk of falling down the depth chart entering 2026, but new head coach Robert Saleh has consistently praised the 2023 third-round pick this spring. Lazenby reports that Spears is working to improve his pass-catching this offseason and could operate more as a "1B" behind Pollard than a traditional backup. He managed just 72 carries for 283 yards and two touchdowns across 13 games in 2025, though an improved Titans offensive line could benefit both Spears and Pollard this season. Tennessee selected Nicholas Singleton in the fifth round of the 2026 NFL Draft, so Spears will face additional competition in training camp.
Verdict
vs 18.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60neutral
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
20.9 RUSH YDS(×1.08 context)
L5 18.0 · L10 20.4 · med 18.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 3.0 · ceil 31.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2011 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season11 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 7/11 | ||
| 64% | 7/11 | ||
| 64% | 7/11 | ||
| 18.5Current | 55% | 6/11 | |
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 |
Situational splits
Over 18.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%5/10Low
Last matchup — @ JAX
Jan 4, 2026
31stof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
JAX allows 36.8 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 32 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tyjae Spears has gone over 18.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. JAX has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 31st-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (36.8 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.