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Denver BroncosTyler Badie
#28 · RB · 5' 8" · 197 lb · 8 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 7 of these 8 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Missouri
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 2.3 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTyler Badie isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Badie beat out Jaleel McLaughlin for a final spot on the Broncos' 53-man roster at the end of training camp. However, Badie will observe Monday night's contest in street clothes while the Broncos roll with three active running backs in RJ Harvey, J.K. Dobbins and rookie fourth-rounder Jonah Coleman. Badie's next chance to suit up is Week 2 against the Jaguars this Sunday.
Verdict
vs 0.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)86supports it
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.6 RUSH YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 3.0 · L10 2.3 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Last 208 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Season8 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 38% | 3/8 | |
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 13% | 1/8 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
Next matchup — vs LAR
Sep 28, 2026
6thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
LAR allows 66.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Tyler Badie has gone over 0.5 RUSH YDS 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. LAR has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 6th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (66.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.