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Indianapolis ColtsTyler Warren
#84 · TE · 6' 6" · 256 lb · 19 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 17 of these 19 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 44.8 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTyler Warren isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Warren opened the scoring with a one-yard touchdown catch, giving him two touchdowns in as many games to begin his sophomore season. The 2025 first-round pick is already halfway to his rookie total of four touchdown catches in 17 games, though Warren also had a rushing TD in 2025. If Alec Pierce (heel) were to miss any additional time after exiting in the first half of Sunday's loss, Warren and Josh Downs would be the top candidates to pick up the slack in the passing game for the run-heavy Colts offense. Warren and the Colts will try to snap a nine-game losing streak dating back to last season when they host the Texans in Week 3.
Verdict
vs 42.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)49neutral
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency9argues against it
Projection
30.6 REC YDS(×0.96 context)
L5 26.6 · L10 33.3 · med 24.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 21.6 · ceil 69.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2019 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Season19 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 10/19 | ||
| 53% | 10/19 | ||
| 53% | 10/19 | ||
| 42.5Current | 53% | 10/19 | |
| 47% | 9/19 | ||
| 42% | 8/19 | ||
| 37% | 7/19 |
Situational splits
Over 42.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home70%7/10Low
Away33%3/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%9/18Medium
Next matchup — vs HOU
Sep 27, 2026
4thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
HOU allows 47.3 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tyler Warren has gone over 42.5 REC YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 53% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 4th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (47.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 24.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 42.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)-7.9%
Our model puts the over at 42.1% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (42.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.