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Kansas City ChiefsTyquan Thornton
#80 · WR · 6' 2" · 185 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Dec 14, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Baylor
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 48.7 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTyquan Thornton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Thornton was one of five receivers to play at least 33 percent of the team's offensive snaps in 2025, joining Rice, Worthy, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Hollywood Brown. The last two of those receivers are no longer on the roster, leaving unproven options such as Jalen Royals and Cyrus Allen competing for depth roles behind Rice, Worthy and Thornton.
Verdict
vs 47.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency20argues against it
Projection
41.6 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 51.2 · L10 48.7 · med 47.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 31.0 · ceil 65.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 47.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 |
Situational splits
Over 47.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home20%1/5Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Kenneth Walker III out-10.5 REC YDS when he sits
Without (6g)
45.2 REC YDS
33% over 47.5
With (3g)
55.7 REC YDS
67% over 47.5
Last matchup — vs LAC
Dec 14, 2025
24thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
LAC allows 38.7 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 57 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Tyquan Thornton has gone over 47.5 REC YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. LAC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 24th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (38.7 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 23.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.