Loading…
Houston TexansWoody Marks
#4 · RB · 5' 10" · 208 lb · 15 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 13 of these 15 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- USC
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 52.3 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutWoody Marks isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Neither Marks nor David Montgomery (6-10-0 rushing) could get anything going on the ground against Cincinnati, as C.J. Stroud was actually the team's leading rusher with three carries for 29 yards. In the passing game, Marks out-targeted Montgomery six to two, as Montgomery turned in a 2-14-0 receiving line. The backfield duo split snaps essentially right down the middle for the second straight week, as Montgomery played 42 snaps to Marks' 38 against the Bengals. Marks is an RB3/4 heading into Week 3 against the Colts. Montgomery remains the favorite for goal-line work.
Verdict
vs 28.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 68% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency15argues against it
Projection
40.9 RUSH YDS(×0.92 context)
L5 45.4 · L10 54.8 · med 56.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 25.0 · ceil 69.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2015 games
73%over
11 over · 4 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–89%Season15 games
73%over
11 over · 4 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–89%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 12/15 | ||
| 80% | 12/15 | ||
| 73% | 11/15 | ||
| 28.5Current | 73% | 11/15 | |
| 73% | 11/15 | ||
| 73% | 11/15 | ||
| 73% | 11/15 |
Situational splits
Over 28.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%6/8Low
Away71%5/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days71%10/14Medium
Next matchup — @ IND
Sep 27, 2026
3rdof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
IND allows 73.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Woody Marks has gone over 28.5 RUSH YDS 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 73% across the full season. IND has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 3rd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (73.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 26.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 73%.