Los Angeles Rams

Xavier Smith Targets

Stats updated: Sep 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Xavier Smith has gone over 2.5 TGT in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Florida A&M
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 3.0 TGT · our line

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OutXavier Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

With usual lead target Puka Nacua (groin) out, Smith was actually the Rams' third option at wide receiver in Week 2 in terms of offensive snaps (25) behind 2025 seventh-rounder Konata Mumpfield (42) and veteran Davante Adams (38), but Adams was the only Rams wideout who saw more than two targets. Smith remained heavily involved on special teams, however, and that will probably continue to be his primary function as long as one of Nacua or Adams is in pads.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it

Projection vs line59neutral

Consistency27argues against it

Projection

3.1 TGT

L5 3.0 · L10 3.0 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 107 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 207 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Season7 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	7/7
	100%	7/7
2.5Current	57%	4/7
	14%	1/7
	14%	1/7
	14%	1/7

Last 7 games — TGT per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away75%3/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%3/6Low

Next matchup — @ DEN

Sep 28, 2026

3rdof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

DEN allows 7.0 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 7 games, Xavier Smith has gone over 2.5 TGT 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. DEN has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 3rd-most TGT of 32 teams (7.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.