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Baltimore RavensZay Flowers Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Zay Flowers has gone over 13.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Boston College
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 15.6 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableZay Flowers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Hamstring Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Sep 27, 2026
Listed as doubtful heading into this past Sunday's game against the Saints, Flowers was ultimately inactive for the Ravens' 24-17 loss. The team remains hopeful that Flowers' absence will be contained to just one game, and the wideout supported that optimism by returning to practice this past Friday as a limited participant. Baltimore will kick off its Week 3 prep Wednesday, and if Flowers upgrades to full practice participation that day, it would clear up any concern about his status heading into the matchup with the Cowboys.
Verdict
vs 13.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60neutral
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency23argues against it
Projection
18.7 FS(×0.97 context)
L5 21.2 · L10 16.2 · med 14.4
Consistency
Variable
floor 11.5 · ceil 21.1
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2017 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Season17 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 15/17 | ||
| 76% | 13/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 13.5Current | 53% | 9/17 | |
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 29% | 5/17 |
Situational splits
Over 13.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away56%5/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%8/16Medium
Next matchup — @ DAL
Sep 27, 2026
22ndof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers
DAL allows 8.6 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Zay Flowers has gone over 13.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 53% across the full season. DAL has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 22nd-most FS of 32 teams (8.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.
More Zay Flowers research
Zay Flowers — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Flowers Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Flowers Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Flowers Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.