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Florida PanthersAaron Ekblad
#5 · D · 6' 4" · 220 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Nov 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 14 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Linepays more
Shots on Goal · season avg 2.0 SOG · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalBlazing overFireFactor 78/100· model 69% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line81supports it
Consistency21argues against it
Projection
2.2 SOG(×1.01 context)
L5 2.0 · L10 2.0 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.6 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 109 games
78%over
7 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 45%–94%Last 209 games
78%over
7 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 45%–94%Season9 games
78%over
7 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 45%–94%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 8/9 | ||
| 1.5Current | 78% | 7/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%4/4Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
1 day100%1/1Low
2 days67%2/3Low
3+ days100%4/4Low
Last matchup — @ WSH
Nov 7, 2026
19thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
WSH allows 1.3 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 35 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 9 games, Aaron Ekblad has gone over 1.5 SOG 7 of 9 decided times (78%) — versus 78% across the full season. WSH has been a middling matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 19th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.3 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 1.5 SOG- No-vig fair (over)
- 45.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 54.5%
Best Over
Hard Rock Bet+105
-6.6% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-140
-6.6% EV
Model vs market (over)+23.7%
Our model puts the over at 69.2% vs the market's no-vig 45.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Shots on Goal (SOG)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 SOG). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 78%.