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San Jose SharksAdam Gaudette
#81 · RW · 6' 1" · 187 lb · 39 games
Stats updated: Apr 16, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Northeastern
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.7 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAdam Gaudette isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Upper Body
- Est. return:
- Sep 24, 2026
Gaudette didn't participate in Saturday's practice and probably won't play in Sunday's preseason matchup against Anaheim. He collected 17 goals, 25 points, 96 shots on net and 53 hits in 66 regular-season contests for the Sharks in 2025-26.
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)44neutral
Projection vs line60neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
1.6 SOG(×0.85 context)
L5 1.8 · L10 1.7 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.6 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season39 games
49%over
19 over · 20 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–64%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 31/39 | ||
| 1.5Current | 49% | 19/39 | |
| 23% | 9/39 | ||
| 10% | 4/39 | ||
| 5% | 2/39 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%8/16Medium
Away48%11/23Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%5/5Medium
1 day38%6/16Medium
2 days20%1/5Low
3+ days58%7/12Low
Next matchup — vs VGK
Sep 23, 2026
25thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
VGK allows 1.8 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 619 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Adam Gaudette has gone over 1.5 SOG 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 49% across the full season. VGK has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 25th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.8 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 49%.