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Edmonton OilersAlec Regula
#75 · D · 19 games
Stats updated: Jan 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 0.7 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAlec Regula isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Undisclosed
- Est. return:
- Sep 29, 2026
Regula's chances of making the Opening Night roster won't be improved by his inability to play in the preseason. In order to secure a spot on the 23-man roster, Regula will need to edge out Spencer Stastney and Ty Emberson for a spot on the blue line. Even if Regula does make the team, he may serve as a healthy scratch more often than not.
Verdict
vs 0.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
0.9 SOG(×0.98 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.6 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2019 games
58%over
11 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–77%Season19 games
58%over
11 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–77%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 58% | 11/19 | |
| 16% | 3/19 | ||
| 0% | 0/19 | ||
| 0% | 0/19 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home58%7/12Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day33%2/6Low
2 days75%3/4Low
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — @ WPG
Sep 23, 2026
7thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
WPG allows 1.5 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 237 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Alec Regula has gone over 0.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 58% across the full season. WPG has been a favorable matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 7th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.5 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.