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Buffalo SabresAlex Lyon
#34 · G · 6' 1" · 199 lb · 40 games
Stats updated: May 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Yale
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Saves · season avg 26.5 SVSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 26.5 SVSavesWarm overFireFactor 20/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)57neutral
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency64supports it
Projection
26.8 SV(×1.02 context)
L5 26.4 · L10 24.4 · med 24.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 23.0 · ceil 31.2
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season40 games
55%over
22 over · 18 under
Medium confidence95% CI 40%–69%Alternate lines — Saves (SV)
SV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 28/40 | ||
| 63% | 25/40 | ||
| 60% | 24/40 | ||
| 26.5Current | 55% | 22/40 | |
| 43% | 17/40 | ||
| 35% | 14/40 | ||
| 30% | 12/40 |
Situational splits
Over 26.5 SV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home62%13/21Medium
Away47%9/19Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day82%9/11Medium
2 days33%3/9Low
3+ days44%8/18Medium
Last matchup — @ MTL
May 10, 2026
27thof 32 in SV allowed to goalies
MTL allows 22.3 SV per game to goalies (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 100 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Alex Lyon has gone over 26.5 SV 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 55% across the full season. MTL has been a tough matchup for goalies this season, allowing the 27th-most SV of 32 teams (22.3 per game). His game-to-game SV have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 5.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.