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Chicago BlackhawksArvid Soderblom
#40 · G · 6' 3" · 180 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Apr 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Saves · season avg 27.7 SVSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 24.5 SVSavesWarm overFireFactor 21/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency42neutral
Projection
28.3 SV(×0.99 context)
L5 33.8 · L10 30.3 · med 28.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 19.6 · ceil 36.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season24 games
54%over
13 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 35%–72%Alternate lines — Saves (SV)
SV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 17/24 | ||
| 63% | 15/24 | ||
| 54% | 13/24 | ||
| 24.5Current | 54% | 13/24 | |
| 46% | 11/24 | ||
| 46% | 11/24 | ||
| 42% | 10/24 |
Situational splits
Over 24.5 SV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home30%3/10Low
Away71%10/14Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
2 days67%2/3Low
3+ days47%9/19Medium
Last matchup — vs STL
Apr 11, 2026
30thof 32 in SV allowed to goalies
STL allows 22.0 SV per game to goalies (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 82 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Arvid Soderblom has gone over 24.5 SV 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 54% across the full season. STL has been a tough matchup for goalies this season, allowing the 30th-most SV of 32 teams (22.0 per game). His game-to-game SV have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 9.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.