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Minnesota WildBlake Coleman
#20 · LW · 5' 11" · 199 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Apr 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Miami (OH)
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 3.1 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 SOGShots on GoalHot overFireFactor 56/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency18argues against it
Projection
3.0 SOG(×1.03 context)
L5 2.6 · L10 2.9 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
70%over
14 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–85%Season24 games
67%over
16 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 47%–82%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96% | 23/24 | ||
| 88% | 21/24 | ||
| 2.5Current | 67% | 16/24 | |
| 33% | 8/24 | ||
| 13% | 3/24 | ||
| 8% | 2/24 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%9/12Medium
Away58%7/12Low
Days since last game
1 day44%4/9Low
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days83%10/12Medium
Last matchup — vs UTAH
Apr 13, 2026
27thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
UTAH allows 1.8 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 538 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Blake Coleman has gone over 2.5 SOG 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 67% across the full season. UTAH has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 27th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.8 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.