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Nashville PredatorsBrady Skjei
#76 · D · 6' 3" · 210 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Nov 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Minnesota
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 0.6 SOG · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalCold underFireFactor 67/100· model 84% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line84supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.8 SOG(×0.99 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.6 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 109 games
11%over
1 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–44%Last 209 games
11%over
1 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–44%Season9 games
11%over
1 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–44%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 1.5Current | 11% | 1/9 | |
| 0% | 0/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away0%0/5Medium
Days since last game
1 day25%1/4Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days0%0/3Low
Last matchup — vs STL
Nov 7, 2026
3rdof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
STL allows 1.6 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 52 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Brady Skjei has gone over 1.5 SOG 1 of 9 decided times (11%) — versus 11% across the full season. STL has been a favorable matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 3rd-most SOG of 32 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 1.5 SOG- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.1%
Best Over
BetMGM-125
-8.3% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-115
-8.3% EV
Model vs market (over)-35.1%
Our model puts the over at 15.9% vs the market's no-vig 50.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Shots on Goal (SOG)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 SOG). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 11%.