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Pittsburgh PenguinsBryan Rust
#17 · RW · 5' 11" · 202 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Oct 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Notre Dame
- Experience
- 14 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.6 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBryan Rust isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Lower Body
- Est. return:
- Dec 5, 2026
Rust has offered decent offensive production through seven games this year, registering three goals, two assists and nine shots. With the 34year-old winger facing an extended absence, the team has already placed him on injured reserve and could still move him to LTIR in the coming days. For now, Thomas Novak will get first crack at playing on the top line with Sidney Crosby, though his hold on Rust's spot should be considered tenuous at best.
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
1.5 SOG(×1.03 context)
L5 1.6 · L10 1.6 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.8 · ceil 2.2
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 105 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 205 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Season5 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 1.5Current | 60% | 3/5 | |
| 20% | 1/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/1Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/2Low
1 day100%1/1Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — vs BOS
Nov 6, 2026
12thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
BOS allows 2.0 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 92 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 5 games, Bryan Rust has gone over 1.5 SOG 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. BOS has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 12th-most SOG of 32 teams (2.0 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.