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Detroit Red WingsCarter Mazur
#34 · LW · 6' 0" · 170 lb · 4 games
Stats updated: Apr 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Denver
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 0.5 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 SOGShots on GoalCool underFireFactor 50/100· model 71% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line71supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.5 SOG
L5 0.5 · L10 0.5 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 0.8
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 54 games
25%over
1 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%Last 104 games
25%over
1 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%Last 204 games
25%over
1 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%Season4 games
25%over
1 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 25% | 1/4 | |
| 25% | 1/4 | ||
| 0% | 0/4 | ||
| 0% | 0/4 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away0%0/2Low
Days since last game
1 day33%1/3Low
Last matchup — @ FLA
Apr 15, 2026
28thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
FLA allows 1.7 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 475 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 4 games, Carter Mazur has gone over 0.5 SOG 1 of 4 decided times (25%) — versus 25% across the full season. FLA has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 28th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.7 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.