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Dallas StarsColin Blackwell
#15 · C · 5' 8" · 190 lb · 36 games
Stats updated: Apr 30, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Harvard
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.1 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.7 SOG(×1.10 context)
L5 0.2 · L10 0.6 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season36 games
64%over
23 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–78%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 64% | 23/36 | |
| 28% | 10/36 | ||
| 14% | 5/36 | ||
| 8% | 3/36 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%12/19Medium
Away65%11/17Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)25%1/4Low
1 day43%3/7Low
2 days75%3/4Low
3+ days79%15/19Medium
Last matchup — @ MIN
Apr 25, 2026
7thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
MIN allows 2.0 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 568 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Colin Blackwell has gone over 0.5 SOG 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 64% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 7th-most SOG of 32 teams (2.0 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 64%.