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San Jose SharksCollin Graf
#51 · RW · 6' 1" · 190 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Quinnipiac
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Linepays more
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.5 SOG · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 41% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
1.5 SOG(×0.95 context)
L5 1.6 · L10 1.5 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.4 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Last 208 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Season8 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 1.5Current | 38% | 3/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/5Medium
Away100%3/3Low
Days since last game
1 day50%2/4Low
3+ days33%1/3Low
With a teammate out
How this SOG line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Igor Chernyshov out · Upper Body-0.5 SOG when he sits
Without (4g)
1.3 SOG
25% over 1.5
With (4g)
1.8 SOG
50% over 1.5
Next matchup — @ MIN
Nov 7, 2026
27thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
MIN allows 1.6 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 108 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Collin Graf has gone over 1.5 SOG 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 27th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 1.5 SOG- No-vig fair (over)
- 53.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 46.5%
Best Over
BetMGM-125
-3.8% EV
Best Under
Caesars+110
-2.3% EV
Model vs market (over)-12.5%
Our model puts the over at 41.0% vs the market's no-vig 53.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Shots on Goal (SOG)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 SOG). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.