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Toronto Maple LeafsDarren Raddysh
#43 · D · 6' 1" · 202 lb · 47 games
Stats updated: May 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 3.4 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 3.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 52% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency12argues against it
Projection
3.8 SOG(×1.03 context)
L5 3.6 · L10 3.5 · med 3.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 5.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season47 games
45%over
21 over · 26 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–59%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94% | 44/47 | ||
| 85% | 40/47 | ||
| 70% | 33/47 | ||
| 3.5Current | 45% | 21/47 | |
| 32% | 15/47 | ||
| 15% | 7/47 | ||
| 4% | 2/47 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%11/25Medium
Away45%10/22Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%4/8Low
1 day40%6/15Medium
2 days55%6/11Low
3+ days45%5/11Low
Last matchup — vs MTL
May 3, 2026
8thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
MTL allows 1.5 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 293 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Darren Raddysh has gone over 3.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 45% across the full season. MTL has been a favorable matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 8th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.5 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.