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Washington CapitalsDylan McIlrath
#52 · D · 6' 5" · 240 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Apr 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 0.6 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.8 SOG(×0.98 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.6 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 13% | 1/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days50%3/6Low
Last matchup — @ CBJ
Apr 14, 2026
3rdof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
CBJ allows 1.5 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 260 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Dylan McIlrath has gone over 0.5 SOG 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CBJ has been a favorable matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 3rd-most SOG of 32 teams (1.5 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.