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Washington CapitalsDylan Strome
#17 · C · 6' 3" · 196 lb · 50 games
Stats updated: Apr 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 2.0 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)76supports it
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.6 SOG(×0.98 context)
L5 1.2 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season50 games
60%over
30 over · 20 under
Medium confidence95% CI 46%–72%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 43/50 | ||
| 1.5Current | 60% | 30/50 | |
| 26% | 13/50 | ||
| 16% | 8/50 | ||
| 8% | 4/50 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home61%14/23Medium
Away59%16/27Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)75%6/8Low
1 day71%10/14Medium
2 days54%7/13Low
3+ days50%7/14Low
Last matchup — @ PIT
Apr 11, 2026
19thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
PIT allows 1.9 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 522 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Dylan Strome has gone over 1.5 SOG 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 60% across the full season. PIT has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 19th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.9 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.