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Winnipeg JetsElias Salomonsson
#57 · D · 6' 0" · 172 lb · 15 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 10 of these 15 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Linepays more
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.5 SOG · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutElias Salomonsson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Personal
- Est. return:
- Nov 30, 2026
ir-nr
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)72supports it
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.1 SOG(×0.95 context)
L5 2.4 · L10 1.9 · med 1.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 2.2
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2015 games
40%over
6 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 20%–64%Season15 games
40%over
6 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 20%–64%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 13/15 | ||
| 1.5Current | 40% | 6/15 | |
| 20% | 3/15 | ||
| 7% | 1/15 | ||
| 0% | 0/15 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%3/9Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/4Low
1 day60%3/5Low
2 days50%2/4Low
3+ days0%0/1Low
Last matchup — @ MTL
Nov 3, 2026
16thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
MTL allows 1.3 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 59 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Elias Salomonsson has gone over 1.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 40% across the full season. MTL has been a middling matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 16th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.3 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 1.5 SOG- No-vig fair (over)
- 45.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 54.5%
Best Over
Hard Rock Bet+110
-4.4% EV
Best Under
Caesars-137
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+4.1%
Our model puts the over at 49.6% vs the market's no-vig 45.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Shots on Goal (SOG)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 SOG). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.