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Minnesota WildFilip Gustavsson
#32 · G · 6' 2" · 197 lb · 50 games
Stats updated: May 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Saves · season avg 25.1 SV · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutFilip Gustavsson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Hip Surgery
- Est. return:
- Nov 19, 2026
Gustavsson has been sidelined since the start of the campaign due to the hip procedure he underwent in the offseason. His inclusion for the team's upcoming road trip is a sign that he hasn't had any major setbacks since being ruled out for at least another month in mid-October. His status will be monitored closely, and once he's able to return, he'll likely see somewhat frequent appearances in net, but he'll be behind Jesper Wallstedt on the depth chart.
Verdict
vs 25.5 SVSavesNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency57neutral
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
21.5 SV(×1.01 context)
L5 20.0 · L10 20.9 · med 20.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 19.8 · ceil 30.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season50 games
48%over
24 over · 26 under
Medium confidence95% CI 35%–61%Alternate lines — Saves (SV)
SV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68% | 34/50 | ||
| 60% | 30/50 | ||
| 56% | 28/50 | ||
| 25.5Current | 48% | 24/50 | |
| 40% | 20/50 | ||
| 36% | 18/50 | ||
| 34% | 17/50 |
Situational splits
Over 25.5 SV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home52%13/25Medium
Away44%11/25Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day60%6/10Low
2 days47%7/15Low
3+ days39%9/23Medium
Next matchup — vs SJ
Nov 7, 2026
12thof 32 in SV allowed to goalies
SJ allows 24.9 SV per game to goalies (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Filip Gustavsson has gone over 25.5 SV 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 48% across the full season. SJ has been a middling matchup for goalies this season, allowing the 12th-most SV of 32 teams (24.9 per game). His game-to-game SV have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.