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Edmonton OilersFrederik Andersen
#31 · G · 6' 4" · 229 lb · 51 games
Stats updated: Jun 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 14 seasons
Line
Saves · season avg 20.9 SV · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutFrederik Andersen isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Knee
- Est. return:
- Dec 30, 2026
Andersen, who signed a one-year, $1 million contract with Edmonton in July, is still rehabbing from a knee injury. He posted a 16-14-5 record with a 3.05 GAA and an .874 save percentage in 35 appearances for Carolina during the 2025-26 regular season. Once he's ready to play in the 2026-27 campaign with the Oilers, Andersen could compete for starts with Tristan Jarry and Devon Levi.
Verdict
vs 19.5 SVSavesNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)57neutral
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency42neutral
Matchup75supports it
Projection
16.2 SV(×0.87 context)
L5 18.8 · L10 16.4 · med 17.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 15.0 · ceil 25.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season51 games
49%over
25 over · 26 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–62%Alternate lines — Saves (SV)
SV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 37/51 | ||
| 67% | 34/51 | ||
| 59% | 30/51 | ||
| 19.5Current | 49% | 25/51 | |
| 45% | 23/51 | ||
| 41% | 21/51 | ||
| 37% | 19/51 |
Situational splits
Over 19.5 SV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%13/26Medium
Away48%12/25Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%2/4Low
1 day56%5/9Low
2 days67%4/6Low
3+ days45%14/31Medium
Next matchup — vs NYR
Nov 10, 2026
25thof 32 in SV allowed to goalies
NYR allows 22.1 SV per game to goalies (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 18 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Frederik Andersen has gone over 19.5 SV 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 49% across the full season. NYR has been a tough matchup for goalies this season, allowing the 25th-most SV of 32 teams (22.1 per game). His game-to-game SV have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 49%.