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Colorado AvalancheGavin Brindley
#54 · C · 5' 8" · 173 lb · 33 games
Stats updated: Mar 22, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Michigan
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.4 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.1 SOG(×0.90 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
30%over
6 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%Season33 games
48%over
16 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–65%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 25/33 | ||
| 1.5Current | 48% | 16/33 | |
| 12% | 4/33 | ||
| 3% | 1/33 | ||
| 0% | 0/33 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%10/20Medium
Away46%6/13Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%2/4Low
1 day50%3/6Low
2 days50%4/8Low
3+ days50%7/14Low
Last matchup — @ CHI
Mar 21, 2026
4thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
CHI allows 2.1 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 451 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Gavin Brindley has gone over 1.5 SOG 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 48% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 4th-most SOG of 32 teams (2.1 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.